Huang Yiping the real risk of high leverage is to allow China to lose twenty years nibbuns

Huang Yiping: the real risk of high leverage is to let Chinese "lost twenty years" according to Professor Huang Yiping in September 24, 2016, the speech on the human economy compiled high leverage current China economy has caused widespread concern and discussion of economic risk Chinese, almost three words from high leverage. China’s economy has entered the risk triangle? Two American economists, Reinhard and Rogoff, produced a best seller in 2009: "this is not the same.". Carding and analysis of the history of mankind in the past 800 years, a variety of financial crisis, a major conclusion is that the money borrowed more, leverage is too high, easy problems. It sounds simple, but the story of the financial crisis continues to repeat itself. Since 2008, China’s leverage has been rising rapidly, which makes people worried about the Chinese version of the financial crisis is approaching. Recently, the bank for International Settlements has done a research report, which suggests that there is a risk triangle in many countries, such as the decline in productivity, the increase in leverage and the narrowing of the policy space. Three factors together, it is difficult to come out, so called risk iron triangle. These three aspects of the problem, the current Chinese economy seems to exist, which is the economic challenges we face today. This year, the government put forward five major economic policy tasks, "one to one down three", one of which is to leverage. At present, the effectiveness of deleveraging policy, a long way to go. In fact, whether it is academia, industry or politics, there is widespread concern about the issue of high leverage, but in many specific issues, understanding is not deep, at least the consensus is not clear. For example: China’s current leverage is not high in the end? High leverage risk in what areas? Are all levers bad? In addition, how to get the lever? We need more in-depth understanding and analysis of these issues. The state-owned and private enterprises leverage is the dilemma lies about differentiation of leverage, there are several different definitions, although the details are different, but the same idea. International Comparison of commonly used comprehensive index is M2 GDP. China’s debt ratio to do a simple cross-country comparison can be seen, M2 accounted for GDP ratio has reached 200%, the United States is 80%. In addition to Japan than us, and then we are not much higher than. There is also a more comprehensive indicator is the ratio of non-financial liabilities and GDP, China is currently about 240%, the figure is more than most emerging market economies, but with the level of the developed economies. But if we simply take these numbers to come to the conclusion, we need to consider some structural factors. For example, China’s leverage is high, one of the important reasons is the bank led financial system, rather than the United States as the market led financial system. Most of the financing of enterprises or residents through loans to solve. Japan’s financial system is bank based, so Japan’s debt ratio exceeds the United states. This is not to deny the conclusion that China’s leverage ratio is too high, but rather to consider some specific factors in making judgments. More importantly, China’s leverage is too high is actually a general concept. If the breakdown, such as the non-financial sector is divided into government, family and business to study.相关的主题文章: